000
FXUS64 KSHV 291133
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
633 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Line of heavy convection that moved through the region earlier
this morning has now migrated south of the ArkLaTex with
lingering rain shield in its wake forecast to maintain moderate
rainfall rates up to a half an inch per hour through mid-morning
across mainly north Louisiana. With flooding rainfall no longer a
threat across the region, went ahead and ended the Flood Watch.
Additionally, went ahead and updated weather and pops to align
with current radar trends. /05/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Tornado Watch #160 is valid through 3am for Grant, Winn, LaSalle
and Caldwell Parishes in Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Flood
Watch is still in effect now until Noon for the southeast half of
the Four State Region. Cancelled the northwest half of the Flood
Watch with this morning forecast package and it`s possible that
the remaining Flood Watch can be cancelled earlier than Noon today
across our southeast half.
Leading edge of a LEWP was beginning to accelerate south and east
through our eastern most zones early this morning and this is
where there will continue to be a wind/isolated tornado threat for
at least one more hour before these threats shift south and east
of our region. Likewise, this will be a continued flood threat
through at least the mid morning hours with another inch or two of
precipitation possible with lighter amounts further north and
west.
Will need to watch for some patchy dense fog early this morning
across our western half as the clearing line has made it into NC
Texas a little faster than progs would indicate, otherwise, look
for a short drying trend to commence later today, through tonight
and through all but our far southern zones on Tuesday. Introduced
small chance pops mainly south of the I-20 Corridor for Tue as
there is some indication that a remnant boundary or front will
begin returning back northward during the day that could act as a
forcing mechanism with daytime heating for at least isolated
convection south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, did not stray
too far from NBM temps through the short term portion of the
forecast.
13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
The drying trend is short lived unfortunately as more significant
rainfall is back in the forecast for later this week.
The Southern Plains returns to southwest flow aloft with a
developing longwave trough carving its way into the Intermountain
West. This flow will only amplify as strong upper ridging remains
anchored across the Southeast U.S. and into the Appalachians.
Upstream disturbances in this southwest flow aloft will likely
provide the upper forcing necessary, combined with plentiful Gulf
of Mexico moisture and you have the ingredients for locally heavy
rainfall once again. Convection should be isolated to scattered
in coverage Wed thru Wed Night with the first impulse likely
impacting our region Thu into Thu Night with another close on its
heels during the day Friday. NBM is a little drier than one would
think with another stronger disturbance moving our way Sat into
Sat Night per the GFS but have followed it`s lead for now.
Needless to say this late week system has the potential to become
another flood maker with severe weather probabilities a little
less certain.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
For the 29/06Z TAFs, the line of showers and strong storms is
continuing to progress slowly east across the ArkLaTex. TXK, TYR
and GGG should see RA coming to and end within the next few hours.
TSRA will continue to impact terminals east, gradually ending
towards dawn or the morning hours for our furthest southeast
airspace. MVFR CIGs look to descend to IFR levels towards dawn
behind the departing storms before finally climbing back to VFR
heights and clearing during the afternoon. South winds will become
variable and lighter behind the storms overnight, eventually
becoming more westerly and northwesterly tomorrow as a surface
boundary passes through the region. Gusts of up to 25 kts will be
possible early in the forecast period but will quickly drop off
behind the departing storms.
/26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 65 87 68 / 10 0 10 10
MLU 78 64 84 64 / 90 10 10 10
DEQ 82 58 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 82 61 86 65 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 78 60 85 61 / 50 10 0 10
TYR 83 64 86 69 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 83 63 86 67 / 10 0 10 10
LFK 85 65 86 68 / 10 0 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion