FXUS64 KSHV 211543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1043 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Shortwave pivoting around the upper low over nrn MO this morning
continues to move ewd, and has taken much of the precip s and e of
our region. Larger scale model output, as well as the HRRR,
indicate that there could be some redevelopment across our far
srn/sern areas this aftn, but coverage not likely to warrant the
high PoPs in the ongoing fcst. Have made some adjustments to PoPs
accordingly. Few minor tweaks to temps for today as well, but
these will likely be barely noticeable. Otherwise, fcst looks to
be on track. /12/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

IFR flight conditions this morning to improve to MVFR by 21/15Z
followed by VFR across most terminals by 21/18Z. However, VCTS
conditions may be possible across TXK from 21/20Z-22/02Z.
Southwest winds around 5-8 knots today to become south at 5 knots
overnight. Otherwise, could see MVFR ceilings returning to LFK/MLU
terminals after 22/08Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday Night/

Low clouds and patchy fog possible this morning due to increased
low-level moisture from recent rains. Weak surface boundary
across the region combined with a lingering upper-trough to
maintain decent rain chances across the the southeastern half of
the region today from mainly southern Arkansas into north
Louisiana and deep east Texas. High temperatures forecast to climb
into the upper 80s areawide today. Could see late afternoon and
evening convection across southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas
as weak impulses drift east along the base of upper-trough.

On Friday, a cold front extending from the Ohio River Valley to
southern Arkansas will be the focus of convection throughout the
day with stronger storms expected during the afternoon and evening
hours. An atmosphere rich in moisture combined with weak
disturbances within a subsident northwest flow regime on the
backside of the upper trough could contribute to damaging winds,
hail, and isolated tornadoes with some discreet supercells mainly
across southern Arkansas and extreme north Louisiana. Convection
is forecast to linger through the evening hours, improving through
the overnight hours. Temperatures on Friday to range from highs
in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. /05/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday night/

The trend going into the longer term portion of the forecast will be
for the subtropical ridge to become firmly established across the
region once again. This will generally serve to limit opportunities
for convection, especially across the southern half of our forecast
area this weekend. Weak shortwave disturbances moving through the
upper flow pattern will shift SE from the Plains during the weekend
and provide slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms
mainly along and north of the I-30 corridor with a stalled frontal
boundary gradually lifting farther north away from our region. High
temperatures will return to the lower to mid 90s due to increasing
influence of the upper ridge and the lack of widespread rainfall.

The trend of hotter temperatures and low rain chances will carry
through the middle of next week as the upper ridge maintains a solid
grip on the region. Better rain chances look to return just beyond
the long term forecast period toward the end of next week with the
seabreeze becoming more active once again. In the meantime, the
first full week of summer will certainly feel like it with typical
hot and humid conditions expected as highs reach into the lower to
mid 90s each afternoon. /19/


SHV  91  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  89  74  92  75 /  30  20  40  30
DEQ  91  70  92  73 /   0  40  40  30
TXK  90  73  93  76 /  10  40  40  30
ELD  91  73  92  74 /  20  30  40  30
TYR  91  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  91  75  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  89  75  95  76 /  30  10  10  10





NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion