837
FXUS64 KSHV 282320
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
- Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of
the work week, as highs continue to reach the low to middle
80s each afternoon.
- Showers will return to the ArkLaTex overnight Friday into
Saturday, continuing through the day and beginning to taper
off from west to east by evening for our trick-or-treaters.
- Another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms is
expected to arrive Monday into Tuesday as a potent cold front
approaches early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Warm and dry conditions look to continue through the remainder of
the work week as a broad area of weakly defined ridging remains
present from south Texas across the Deep South to the Atlantic
coast. As the weekend approaches, a shortwave trough will begin to
emerge over west Texas, pushing east into Friday. This shortwave
will be the catalyst for the unsettled pattern going into the
weekend. As of this writing, there remains some uncertainty in the
timing of the wave`s propagation, with more progressive solutions
hinting at some early rainfall across east Texas by late Friday,
though whether sufficient forcing will be in play by this time is
also uncertain. NBM guidance introduces PoPs across deep east
Texas after sunset Friday, spreading east overnight, with the
highest chances areawide through the day Saturday.
As far as the trick-or-treating outlook for the ArkLaTex, guidance
does still trend PoPs downward after 00Z Sunday from west to east,
but our forecast zones east of I-49 still see Chc PoPs well into the
evening. As with the time of arrival, the time of rainfall ending
will be contingent on the shortwave`s speed, and will bear
monitoring through the days ahead as ensemble members attempt to
come to a consensus.
The shortwave will sweep out to the northeast into Sunday, leaving
the remainder of the weekend quiet and warm as a quickly building
ridge sets up and is promptly ushered to the east by the next system
taking shape over the Rockies. A large longwave trough will form a
closed low as it plunges south towards the Four Corners region and
east over the Front Range into the southern Plains. This low looks
to deepen considerably throughout, establishing a tight pressure
gradient which will approach the ArkLaTex from the northwest Monday
into Tuesday. As this is still in the Days 6-7 timeframe, many
variables remain in play and could alter the forecast significantly,
such as trough amplitude, position and depth of the low, steering
ahead of the system at low and mid levels, and so on. As of this
writing, suffice to say this looks to be another decent shot at
rainfall for the entire Four State Region, and possibly our first
substantial rounds of thunderstorms in quite some time. Will be
monitoring closely in the days ahead.
/26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
For the 29/00z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail
across the region and should continue to do so throughout this TAF
period. The main thing during this TAF period will be increasing
cloud cover across the region starting tonight and spreading
across the remainder of the area by Thursday afternoon. Otherwise,
winds will be generally light and under 5 kts throughout this
period. /33/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into tomorrow for
area fire districts generally east of the I-49 corridor in
southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, with minimum relative
humidity values falling into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent
range, in tandem with critically to extremely dry fuels. Any fires
which develop will be able to spread with ease.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Spotter activation may be needed over the next couple of days in
the event of wildfire development. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 59 84 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 85 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 55 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 58 86 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 51 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 63 82 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 59 83 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 58 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion