000
FXUS64 KSHV 071716
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

As of 10:30 AM CDT, temperatures remain in the low-to-mid 70s
across the Ark-La-Tex with high clouds drifting in from the west
as a trough over the Gulf of California funnels southwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures will steadily warm up to maximums in the
upper 80s (with lower 90s possible) on an otherwise dry day. With
weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast
grid adjustments are not necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Cry Havoc, and let slip the temperatures of fall!

For starters, I don`t believe that Shakespeare quote to be
entirely accurate. Beyond that, it`s not entirely accurate from a
meteorological sense either. While we can expect a swing in
temperatures towards an autumn feel, it`s really only a feel of
the seasonal kind. A trough will continue to dig through the
Midwest at the start of this short-term, which will push a pretty
powerful cold front south with it. The region won`t really begin
to feel the effects of this front until Saturday, with afternoon
highs getting down into the mid-70s to mid-80s. Until then,
temperatures under the dry airmass will continue to run above
average. Highs today will range in the upper-80s to low-90s, with
lows tonight ranging in the low-50s to low-60s.

Rain chances....well...we won`t talk about those. Well, I will,
but you won`t like what I have to say. While this is a very beefy
cold front expected to move through into the weekend, the airmass
situated over the region is bone dry. This will once again result
in a dry frontal passage, with rain chances remaining limited well
into the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Post FROPA continues through the weekend as the ridge axis settles
in and works to the south and east. The 10 degree high temperature
spread forecasted for Saturday will return back to low to mid 80s on
Sunday as return flow settles in late Sunday night into Monday
morning with sfc winds becoming southeasterly. The return to
southerly sfc flow will aid in an increase in temperatures to start
the new week as mid to upper 80s appear likely in this forecast
package. Best chances for low 90s look to be to the southwest,
closer to Lufkin (KLFK).

As the ridge axis continues to work east and depart
the Delmarva Peninsula, into the Atlantic between 15-18z Tuesday,
southeasterly winds will prevail locally ahead of an expected
frontal passage highlighted in the global guidance for Thursday
morning/afternoon. Timing of the frontal passage, along with FROPA
associated POPs, will dictate just how warm high temperatures get
Thursday. For now Wednesday should represent peak warming ahead of
the front. Post frontal temperature advection will allow for another
return to seasonal highs near the end of this forecast cycle.

Models continue to highlight healthy moisture advection northward
from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Wednesday ahead of the arrival of the
frontal boundary some time between 12-15z Thursday. Increased PWAT
values nearing 1.50" across central LA, mixed with convergent flow
ahead of the front will help support some minor POPs Wednesday
afternoon in the far SE corner of the CWA, with more widespread POP
chances Thursday as the front moves in and PWAT values advance
further north. While the trend of frontal associated POPs continue
to appear in the guidance, forcing associated with the front looks
to decay on approach to the northern fringe of the CWA, but still
enough to support the chance for showers Thursday. For now, keeping
the NBM long term rain chances in this forecast cycle. Following the
passing front, the associated ridge axis behind the front sets up
across central Arkansas for the end of the forecast period, drying
us out once more.

/53/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the 07/18Z TAF update, a weak frontal boundary proceeding
southward will not change much other than wind speed and
direction (light N to NE surface winds return to near 10 kts in
speed) across the airspace by 08/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the period with more high cloud cover
drifting in from the west. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  58  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  53  75  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  57  76  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  52  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  81  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  58  80  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  64  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...16

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion