740
FXUS64 KSHV 020459
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1059 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Other than some cirrus clouds moving across the region, expect
another quiet overnight period. Light southerly winds will yield
slightly warmer overnight temperatures in comparison to last night,
with lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Can`t rule out
some patchy fog developing across our Deep East Texas and Central
Louisiana zones just before daybreak, then diminishing by mid
Sunday morning. /20/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Dry and warmer than normal conditions will remain in place through
the weekend across the Four State Region. This is due to post-
frontal surface ridging making its way towards the Mississippi
River. As the ridge axis shifts further east of the area,
southerly winds return overnight tonight, allowing for slightly
milder temperature minimums in the low-to-mid 40s. Otherwise,
temperature maximums/minimums will return to the mid-to-upper
60s/upper 40s to lower 50s, respectively, with southerly surface
winds tomorrow afternoon at 5-10 mph under mostly sunny skies.
/16/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
A Spring-like warming trend will continue through next week before
the next potential chances of precipitation arrives for the Four
State Region. Aloft, a zonal to quasi-zonal synoptic flow pattern
will persist through the next several days, influencing most of
the weather impacts across the area. Surface ridging, evolving in
tandem, will shift to our east and place moist onshore flow across
southeast Texas with multiple days of southerly winds boosting dew
points into the 60s by Monday afternoon. This quieter zonal flow
includes embedded features that can still produce some weather
activity and precipitation, with one such embedded shortwave
feature arriving by the middle of next week to instigate some rain
chances into the end of next week. That said, long range guidance
has trended drier and warmer as temperature maximums/minimums
continue to rise into the mid-to-upper 70s/upper 50-lower 60s,
respectively (well above normal for this time of the year), with
persistent southerly surface winds for most of the week. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Clear skies with mild winds will prevail across the region
tonight. There is a chance of some light, patchy fog developing
around KLFK just before sunrise, but confidence is low. Winds are
expected to increase to around 10 kts for all sites beginning
after sunrise tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected to continue
into tomorrow night for most sites. There is some uncertainty on
the timing of some lower deck stratus moving northward into the
KLFK airspace by the end of the period. Erring on the side of
caution, the TAFs reflect the earliest possible time of MVFR
ceilings. More clarity on timing should come in future
discussions.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 43 73 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 38 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 74 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 41 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 44 74 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...57
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion