597
FXUS64 KSHV 142005
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
305 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

The much advertised cold front has cleared all but our extreme
souther tier of Toledo Bend Country this afternoon with sharply
drier air in its wake. Contrast dew points in the 30s and 40s
behind the boundary to the 50s and 60s out ahead of it. As the
front continues to advance southward this evening and overnight,
wind speeds will drop off to near calm with very good radiational
cooling. As a result, look for temperatures to drop off quickly
after sunset with overnight lows ranging from the mid and upper
40s farther north through the 50s along and south of I-30.

Despite the recent fropa, another warm day is expected on Tuesday
before the more significant cold air advection comes Tuesday night
with the next front diving south along a deep upper-level trough
carving out across the eastern CONUS. Ahead of it, look for high
temperatures on Tuesday afternoon to reach into the 80s and even
some lower 90s across parts of East Texas. However, the sharply
cooler air mass will begin to surge into the region by Tuesday
evening with temperatures plummeting into the 40s to lower 50s by
daybreak on Wednesday.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Below normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of
the work week with daily highs in the 60s and 70s followed by very
chilly overnight temperatures in the 30s and 40s from mid to late
week. In fact, we may be looking at some patchy frost across our
far northern zones on Wednesday night and Thursday night with mid
to upper 30s across these areas for overnight lows. Winds will be
gusty behind the front on Wednesday, but cooling temperatures will
help to mitigate the fire danger.

As high pressure shifts east of the region by late week, a gradual
moderating trend is expected with temperatures returning closer to
seasonal averages for the weekend. Unfortunately, we still don`t
see much hope for any appreciable rainfall on the horizon through
the next week. This will continue to exacerbate drought conditions
with low relative humidity values throughout the week, but wind
speeds should remain relatively light behind the front such that
fire danger will remain fairly low over the weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, post fropa and looking good with just a
few passing clouds and NE winds this cycle. Gusts are starting to
loosen up and will become less prone after 21Z. Light and variable
overnight with fair skies. Tuesday winds will be E/NE 5 KT early and
then a secondary fropa will gust the winds up again late Tuesday
into Wednesday with NE10-20KT.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  88  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  84  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  81  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  84  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  82  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  92  50  70 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  54  89  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  92  52  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion