256
FXUS64 KSHV 160634
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Following a very warm afternoon, mid-evening temps have fallen off
rapidly since sunset given the dry air in place, as sfc ridging is
anchored from the Ozarks S into E TX/Lower MS Valley. This sfc
ridging should continue to slide ESE into the MS Valley overnight,
with good radiational cooling conditions expected as the patchy
cirrus noted on the evening satellite imagery over portions of OK
continues to gradually erode as it approaches the region. While
some cirrus may redevelop over this area and sink to near the I-20
corridor late tonight, this should do little to impede cooling,
with the coolest temps expected through at least the entire
forecast period. One fly in the ointment though are the cu cigs
noted over portions of SE TX into the NW Gulf, which persist along
a now stationary front extending from just S of ATT, to near GLS,
and across the Nrn Gulf along/just off the LA coast.

The GFS has initialized best with the current cu field, which has
just recently shown a slow Nwd shift between ATT and CLL, with
this trend expected to continue overnight as the H850 ridge shifts
SE towards Sabine Pass and SW LA through daybreak Wednesday. Some
of these cu cigs may drift NNE towards the Wrn sections of E TX by
or shortly before daybreak. Sfc winds should also veer more ESE by
this time as well, which may slightly offset the extent of
radiational cooling.

Did lower min temps slightly over portions of the area given the
extent of dry air in place, before a good warmup ensues Wednesday
once winds become more Srly and increase with insolation. Also
beefed up sky grids a bit especially over SE OK/E TX where a
scattered cu field will develop/spread N into these areas as well
as portions of extreme SW AR. More significant air mass
modification will wait until late Wednesday night and especially
Thursday as the low level moisture advection increases/deepens.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Clear skies to start the forecast period, however this will change
for the northern terminals over the next few hours as SCT/BKN mid
level coverage builds in from the north and northwest. This will
continue to spread south and east through the early morning, but
signs point towards a brief period of SKC through the mid to late
morning and early afternoon. By 18z, guidance is currently
advertising a weak FEW/SCT CU field across the ETX terminals, with
some of this extending as far east as NW LA and SW AR.
Nonetheless, VFR is expected to prevail. By sunset, the CU should
begin to dissipate before low clouds advance back north through
the early hours of tomorrow AM, but that is beyond this TAF
period.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  62  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  56  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  78  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  78  56  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  62  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  81  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  83  63  85  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion